Predictions for 2021

In the spirit of SlateStarCodex, here are my predictions for 2021. I am using round numbers for all predictions for ease of calculation.

Coronavirus:

1. Everyone in the US who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by the end of the year: 90%

2. ...by the end of September: 80%

3. ...by the end of July: 60%

4. The current wave of infections has peaked and will steadily decline through January: 60%

5. There will be an additional wave of infections from the new British strain: 60%

6. The US will not follow a strategy of maximizing first vaccine shots, and instead will hold second shots in reserve: 80%

7. Sweden will not have a substantially higher (>20%) death rate compared to the rest of Europe: 80%

8. South Dakota will not have a substantially higher (>20%) death rate compared to North Dakota: 80%

9. I will be vaccinated before (knowingly) getting covid-19: 70%

10. I will be vaccinated by June: 70%

Politics:

11. Both Republicans will win the Georgia runoff elections: 60%

12. The same party will win both Georgia runoff elections: 90%

13. The Senate will not vote on $2,000 stimulus checks in January: 80%

14. Biden will cancel at least some student debt: 70%

15. None of my student debt will be canceled: 80%

16. No additional stimulus will be passed in 2021: 60%

17. No healthcare public option will be passed in 2021: 80%

18. US economic growth will increase >5% in both Q3 and Q4 2021

Other:

19. My business makes more profit in 2021 than 2020: 90%

20. ...than 2019: 70%

21. Eagle Camp will return in 2021: 70%

22. I will lose at least 25 pounds: 70%

23. At the end of the year, I will still be making the Mind Killer podcast: 80%

24. At the end of the year, I will still be making the More Perfect Collingswood podcast: 80%

25. I will attend or host a party with >10 people by July: 70%

26. Discord will continue being my primary social network all year: 80%